Real estate Web sites' competition for eyeballs is getting serious -- Move Inc. is using eye-tracking studies to gauge how users interact with the redesigned Realtor.com site, now in beta.

Move Inc. officials, in a presentation today at the JP Morgan 36th Annual Technology Conference in Boston, will discuss the redesign and other company and industry developments.

The eye-tracking technology is a useful gauge for figuring out what consumers are paying the most attention to when visiting the Web site, said Errol Samuelson, Realtor.com president.

The technology features a camera that tracks eye movement, and Web page areas receive points in the test when the eyes linger there.

Tests of this technology on the existing Realtor.com site and the beta version of the site found that there is a 70 percent increase in view time at the new site, with 42 percent more properties viewed.

Employees at a research and development office that Move opened last year in California's Silicon Valley have had past experience using eye-tracking techniques, Samuelson said, and online companies like eBay and Google are among those that use the tests. (Note: the image here is from the film "Clockwork Orange," not from Move's R&D center.)

See this earlier blog post for some comments by Samuelson about online real estate.

Crude prices hit a record $127 a barrel today, helping kill a stock market rally that was fueled by a better-than-expected leading indicators report from the Conference Board (the report suggested that the economy has slowed down but is not in a recession).

While the stock market has been on a wild roller coaster ride for months now, rising oil and commodities prices could also hinder the recovery in housing markets by pushing up mortgage rates. Fears of inflation drive up bond yields -- including those used to finance mortgages, and the current boom in oil and other commodities has serious inflation ramifications.

It's hard to believe that less than a year ago -- when OPEC announced it would boost oil production in response to the mess the mortgage meltdown had made out of financial markets -- that oil was $76 a barrel. Oil prices seemed stratospheric at the time (they had more than doubled in two years) but warnings of $100-a-barrel oil might have seemed far-fetched.

Now there's talk of $200-a-barrel oil, but OPEC nations have been less sympathetic lately, saying the weak dollar is helping drive up prices (Saudi Arabia's pledge to boost production by 300,000 barrels a day has been seen as a token gesture -- see Bloomberg). The Fed's taken some of the blame for that. By slashing short-term interest rates in recent months, some say, Bernanke and Co. have helped devalue the dollar, pushing up the price of oil, food, and other commodities.

The Fed and the world's central banks are in a "preserve the economy or fight inflation" conundrum, with Asia, India, Russia, the Middle East and some emerging nations "in full-blown wage-price spiral and overheating beyond capacity," writes mortgage broker and Inman News columnist Lou Barnes.

Barnes says the Fed is doing what it has to -- trying to keep U.S. GDP from shrinking -- but that mortgage rates have surged in recent weeks and we shouldn't expect to see them back down in the fives again without a weakening economy. Bankers, he says, are hoping the slowdown in the U.S. and Europe "will spread to Asia, breaking commodity and food prices, and perhaps mortgage rates as well."

Rising oil prices may be a boon for Gulf Coast and "oil patch" states, but rising mortgage rates will reduce the buying power of house hunters, putting more downward pressure on prices. Although prices may still need to come down in some markets to make home ownership attainable for average folks, buyers won't get off the sidelines until there's some stability.

Maybe that's fine for folks like the Clampetts or anybody who can put cash on the table when they go house hunting in Beverly Hills, but for the rest of us higher oil prices are going to be felt at other places than the gas pump.

Remember the infamous "Mission Accomplished" photo op President Bush took in 2003 in his flight gear giving the thumbs up on the he war in Iraq?

That was the image that came to mind after reading the latest forecast today from National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

I'm all for optimism, but sometimes this outlook can tip into the realm of an irresponsible take on reality given a person's leadership position in the business world.

Let's take a look:

Recession

Yun says the recession is not happening. "A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It's not in the cards - no matter how you look at it," he said.

OK, we'll give him the technical on this. But let's not kid ourselves -- things are not good. Thousands of jobs have evaporated already this year and the price of gas is at an astounding average $3.787 per gallon nationwide as of today.

U.C. Berkeley economist Kenneth Rosen at a conference last week said we're in recession already and that there is a 45 percent chance for a deep recession, which could mean the loss of 4 million jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7 percent. Rosen gives a 50 percent chance to this recession remaining mild, and a 5 percent chance to a quick recovery.

Housing market

Yun says, "Foreclosures are being driven principally by subprime loans."

"In fact, if you look at where home prices fell the most, it's the markets where subprime loans were prevalent," Yun said. Cape Coral, Fla.; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Orlando, Fla.; Phoenix and Riverside, Calif., were among the cities with a high percentage of subprime lending and where the markets suffered the biggest downturns, he explained.

Yes, all markets are local and some are doing fine. But as a whole, the nation's real estate market is still in a depressed state and the numbers show no bottom yet.

Here's the latest quarterly reading right from NAR's own machine:

Total sales of resale single-family homes and condos reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.95 million units in the first quarter, which was down 22.2 percent below the 6.36 million rate in first-quarter 2007 and down 0.9 percent from 5 million in fourth-quarter 2007.

For prices, NAR said that 28 of 149 U.S. metro areas tracked had double-digit percentage declines in median resale single-family home prices in the first quarter compared to first-quarter 2007, and the overall median price dropped at a record 7.7 percent from a year ago.

One hundred of the metro areas had price declines, according to the report, while prices rose in 48 metro areas and remained flat in Honolulu.

Context

Yun says, "It's important to keep things in context," and we couldn't agree more. That's why we feel lost when he goes on to make predictions for an upturn at the end of the year:

Today, Yun says that most of the country are poised for improvement in the second half of 2008. You can't blame him for being optimistic, but we fail to see any evidence that would support this prediction. He says the recovery will vary by market -- and this is no doubt true, just as the downturn varied by market.

But then this price forecast:

Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years - like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area - are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.

That raised a red flag with us. Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix haven't even seen a bottom in price declines, yet they are going to fall a little further and then make up the difference by 50 percent within five years? Maybe he is basing this on pent-up demand.

Check out the latest quarterly numbers from NAR here.

Approval ratings

As with President Bush's all-time-low approval ratings, I couldn't help but think NAR is wrestling with the same problem after seeing this uber-rosy forecast. After the full-page newspaper ads in the fall of 2006 proclaiming it was the best time to buy or sell a home, it's hard for many believe what they read from this group now since that actually marked a significant slide in value for most markets -- 10%, 15%, 20% -- over the following six months to a year.

It's easy to pick on Yun. He has a tough job; all economists do. We don't claim that we could do any better. We just think it's time NAR's top economist gave a realistic outlook for members and for the general public. Only then will consumers invest trust in this organization.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would provide the funding to protect taxpayers against anticipated losses from a $300 billion expansion of FHA loan guarantee programs, under a compromise being worked out today between Senate lawmakers, Reuters reports.

The controversial plan for the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee refis for troubled borrowers -- approved by the House last week and part of Senate legislation backed by Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn. -- would be supported by an affordable housing fund that's envisioned in the GSE reform bill passed by the House last year.

The fund would raise about $500 million a year by hitting up Fannie and Freddie ("the GSEs") for an amount equal to 1.2 basis points of their outstanding mortgages.

Sen. Richard Shelby, ranking Republican on Dodd's Senate Banking Committee, is said to oppose an expansion of FHA loan guarantee programs at taxpayer expense.

While most of the program's costs would be funded by mortgage insurance premiums paid by borrowers, the Congresssional Budget Office has estimated that taxpayers might be on the hook for $1.7 billion in losses if the program helped 500,000 borrowers over the next five years. Having Fannie and Freddie foot the bill could assuage Shelby, sources told Reuters.

The Bush administration has threatened to veto the plan, put forward by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., in March. Frank said today that Bush's veto threat was just that -- a threat -- and that he remains hopeful the Senate will reach a compromise.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Bruce Curington, a Realtor for Rossum & Neal Real Estate in Rapid City, S.D., who is attending a National Association of Realtors conference here this week, said home prices and sales have risen year-over-year in Rapid City.

For-sale inventory is up, though, compared to last year, and financing is tougher now for some buyers but foreclosures aren't a factor as they are in some other market areas, he said. "Interest rates are down, but it's a little harder for buyers because no one's giving away mortgages anymore," he said.

Foreclosure data provider RealtyTrac reported this week that South Dakota had the second-lowest rate of foreclosure filings per household among all states in April, with one foreclosure filing for every 14,657 households.

Curington noted that the Rapid City region is home to such landmarks as Mt. Rushmore, Devil's Tower and the controversial, partially completed Crazy Horse Monument.

The Rapid City area didn't experience the high rate of appreciation that some other markets saw during the real estate run-up, he said, and some older homes are still selling for about $100,000 though there has been a rise in luxury homes in the region selling for over $1 million.

The National Association of Realtors reported that single-family resale home sales fell 13.2 percent statewide in North Dakota in the first quarter compared to first-quarter 2007. Prices were up 2.7 percent in the Bismarck, S.D., area year-over-year in the first quarter, NAR also reported, though the association doesn't track data for the Rapid City area.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The National Association of Realtors is twittering about its Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo, an annual event in the nation's capital.

Twitter.com is a site that allows users to instantly share text messages with a Web audience, and can function as a sort of real-time, train-of-thought blogging platform.

Some twitter tidbits from NAR: "Strangest sight of the day: Iwo Jima and Einstein made out of chocolate, outside Thurgood Marshall North meeting room" at the conference site.

And the NAR Twitter site shares insight from Ebby Halliday, 97, founder and chairman of the board for Texas brokerage company Ebby Halliday, Realtors, who spoke on Tuesday: "reason for her longevity -- 'I don't drink, don't smoke and I don't retire' (big laugh and applause from the audience)."

NAR's conference Twitter site: http://twitter.com/nar_midyear, and you can follow the Twitter posts on mobile devices by texting "follownar_midyear" to 40404.

If you're not a Twitter member you can sign up at http://twitter.com.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A vendor at the National Association of Realtors' mid-year trade expo, which opened today, uses celebrity names to promote personalized nameplates and license plate frames.

News today that Foreclosure filings increased in April means that this issue is going to continue to affect the real estate market for the foreseeable future, especially in our backyard, California.

That's why at Connect SF2008 in San Francisco this summer, we've created a special Foreclosures Workshop for agents and brokers who are interested in working this new market. We've assembled a fantastic series of speakers and panels so that, if you're interested in learning how to work with foreclosures, you'll walk away with specific strategies that will help you gain business and help homeowners in need.

The Foreclosures Workshop runs Wednesday, July 23rd from 9am to 12pm. If you're looking to make the most of your trip to San Francisco this summer - make sure you round out your stay by grabbing one of these pre-conference Workshops.

A full conference pass which includes the Workshop is currently $729 (Inman Members get an additional $100 off that price). Prices go up in a couple of weeks, so register soon!

Joel Burslem has been keeping a close watch on Google's stealthy moves in the real estate space on his blog, Future of Real Estate Marketing. Not only has Google been adding property listings from many sources to classified platform Google Base, but they've created a generic Google Base housing search page -- a possible step toward a "Google Real Estate" portal, Burslem thinks.

Now Burslem notes that Google is quietly pushing listings onto Google Maps and has created a real estate search category. For now, listings appear sparse, Burslem says, but it's easy to imagine "how this could quickly fill up should they turn on the firehose of data (Google has) been accumulating from their broker relationships."

Burslem says Google Maps is already part of his routine when scoping out homes, because it helps him get a feel for the neighborhood a listing is located. Now, he says, it's looking like "Google Maps is going to be my new real estate search page."

To see Google Maps real estate search in action, go to Google Maps, and type the name of a city and "real estate." Or you can click on the tiny blue letters next to the search box, "Show search options," which opens up a pull-down menu that offers to "Restrict results to." Select "real estate" and go to town (right click the screen shot above for an example).

Keller-Williams Broker Associate Vincent Bindi says he's "officially ringing the dinner bell for buying opportunities" in Orange County, Calif. noting that months of inventory has dropped for 16 weeks in a row and is well below six months.

"We have now officially gone from a buyer's market to a neutral market," Bindi declares, defining four to six months of inventory as a neutral market.

Bindi is a serious number cruncher and not an industry chearleader, by the way. Last summer, he was publishing spreadsheets that suggested prices were falling than most people had realized (see previous post).

Today, Bindi says the low end of the market is the strongest, with just 4.3 months of inventory for homes priced below $450,000. That's almost considered a seller's market. Bindi hinks discretionary sellers have pulled their homes off the market to wait out the downturn, meaning the "vast majority of sales" are bank-owned properties, short sales, or homeowners who have no choice about moving and are taking 20 to 35 percent price cuts.

"Some REO properties are receiving multiple offers in the first week, and some are getting bid up 5 percent to 10 percent past the asking price. Those are the street signs of a neutral market," Bindi says.

Bindi's chart, above (right click for full size), shows total inventory of homes for sale in south Orange County dropping in the past 3 weeks (it's usually headed up this time of year, Bindi says) and the number of homes pending in escrow has hit 1,000 homes -- a level not seen since June, 2006.